Eli Lilly ( LLY ) shares traded down more than 6% Tuesday after the company reported revenue guidance for the fourth quarter of 2024 that missed Wall Street expectations.
Lilly revised its revenue guidance down 5%, to $13.5 billion, missing consensus of $14 billion by $500 million. But the guidance still represents a 45% increase from the same quarter in 2023. Lilly previously provided a range of $13.9 billion to $14.5 billion. The company also provided full-year 2024 guidance of $45 billion, or 32% more than 2023.
"While the US incretin [hormones that help regulate blood sugar levels after eating] market grew 45% compared to the same quarter last year, our previous guidance had anticipated even faster acceleration of growth for the quarter. That, in addition to lower-than-expected channel inventory at year-end, contributed to our Q4 results. We continued to make progress on our manufacturing build-out, and U.S. supply across all doses of tirzepatide was available throughout Q4," said Lilly CEO David Ricks in a statement.
The move in the stock surprised some experts and analysts since the market had expected a somewhat softer Q4.
"Although this is the second quarter in a row of disappointing results, we expect 2025+ financial performance and pipeline news flow (specifically oral GLP-1 orforglipron Ph3 results) to be encouraging," wrote Leerink Partners analyst David Risinger in a note to clients.
JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott agreed. "Overall, while 4Q dynamics have represented an overhang on the story, we expect the focus for the story to shift to the ongoing ramp in RXs, the newly issued 2025 guidance, as well as a number of upcoming catalysts."
Lilly expects its most-watched blockbuster products — GLP-1 tirzepatide products Mounjaro and Zepbound — to miss consensus as well.
Guidance for diabetes drug Mounjaro is $3.5 billion, while weight loss drug Zepbound is expected to bring in $1.9 billion for the quarter.
In the latest weekly prescription tracking from JPMorgan, based on data from pharmaceutical data firm IQVIA, Zepbound's year-over-year weekly average for prescriptions in the quarter is up 241%, while Mounjaro is up 51%.
Anjalee Khemlani is the senior health reporter at Yahoo Finance, covering all things pharma, insurance, care services, digital health, PBMs, and health policy and politics. That includes GLP-1s, of course. Follow Anjalee on social media platforms X, LinkedIn, and Bluesky @AnjKhem .
.
