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The clouds that hung over midsize companies during some difficult recent years have considerably cleared, judging by JPMorgan Chase’s 2025 Business Leaders Outlook survey.
Among 1,641 responding senior executives at U.S. companies with $20 million to $500 million in annual revenue, 71% said they saw no recession on the horizon. Only 14% of respondents said they didn’t anticipate a recession or believe we’re already in one, compared to 40% in last year’s version of Chase’s annual survey. The result is that “the focus has shifted from caution to growth,” Chase said in its survey report.
Compared to last year’s version of Chase’s annual survey, the proportion of midsize company executives reporting confidence in the national economy more than doubled, from 31% to 65%. It was the largest single-year gain since the 2017 survey, “suggesting a fundamental shift in business sentiment.”
“Businesses are entering 2025 with positive momentum after navigating a period of elevated inflation and interest rates better than expected,” said Ginger Chambless, head of research for JPMorgan Chase Commercial Banking. Indeed, companies were even higher on the outlook for their own performance than that of the overall economy, with 75% of those polled saying they’re optimistic.
Three-fourths (74%) of middle-market leaders said they expect higher revenue this year, and two-thirds (65%) said they anticipate increased profits. Half (51%) said they plan to add headcount, up seven percentage points from last year, versus just 8% who said their workforce would shrink.
The leading growth strategy today among midsize companies is the introduction of new products and services, followed by strategic partnerships and investments.
What survey participants are not confident in is the global economy, with only 29% saying they’re optimistic. While that was up markedly from last year’s 10%, more than half (51%) of respondents said they were neutral, and 20% expressed pessimism. The overall tepid view of overseas economic prospects persists against a backdrop of ongoing military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and other heightened geopolitical tensions, Chase wrote.
“The contrast between national and global economic optimism reflects an expectation that U.S. exceptionalism will continue,” said Chambless. “Uncertainty around shifts in global trading patterns, potential tariff impacts and geopolitical tensions are likely weighing on global sentiment.”
In another less-than-optimal finding, 77% of middle-market executives said costs are increasing, while only 2% said they’re declining.
Meanwhile, Chase also surveyed 1,003 small business owners, with at least $100,000 and less than $20 million in annual revenue, on many of the same topics.
Overall, they were somewhat less optimistic than their counterparts at midsize companies. Whereas 71% of the latter foresaw no recession, 66% of the small business leaders said the same.
And while 65% of midsize leaders reported confidence in the national economy, more than doubling last year’s result, among small businesses the confident proportion was up only 12 percentage points, to 55%. Two-thirds of small business leaders expect sales to rise this year, compared to three-fourths of midsize executives. In both groups, about two-thirds said they expected profits to increase.
