Arthur Hayes, chief investment officer of Maelstrom and former BitMEX CEO, predicts that Bitcoin will first dip to around $75,000 before surging to $250,000 by the end of the cycle.

Speaking with Roundtable expert Scott Melker, Hayes attributed his forecast to macroeconomic factors, particularly the US liquidity situation under Donald Trump’s presidency.

“At least my prediction could be wrong. I hope I’m wrong,” Hayes said, referring to Bitcoin’s expected short-term dip.

Bitcoin is currently trading at $105,378, down 3.16% from its all-time high of $108,786, which was recorded on Jan. 20, 2025.

He explained that while Trump’s election initially fueled optimism for expansive economic policies — including tax cuts, increased government spending, and crypto-friendly regulations — the reality has been different.

“Bitcoin has traded ahead of the fundamentals in terms of liberal liquidity,” Hayes noted, adding that expectations of aggressive money printing have not materialized as expected.

Political influence over the Federal Reserve

Hayes argued that the Federal Reserve, led by Chair Jerome Powell, has played a key role in suppressing liquidity. He believes Powell remains politically motivated and is unlikely to accommodate Trump’s push for lower interest rates and increased money supply.

“As much as Powell tries to play the ‘I’m not a political person’ game, he’s very political,” Hayes said. “Him and Trump don’t like each other. Trump obviously has lambasted him over Bloomberg and the newswire, saying, ‘Cut the money, I need cheap money and lots of money to revitalize American industry.’”

Debt ceiling fight

Hayes noted the upcoming US debt ceiling battle as a potential trigger for economic turmoil. He suggested that Trump could deliberately allow a financial crisis to unfold early in his term and blame it on the Biden administration.

The debt ceiling is the legal limit on how much money the US government can borrow to pay its bills. If Congress does not raise or suspend this limit, the government risks defaulting on its obligations, which could lead to economic instability.

Historically, debt ceiling debates have caused financial market uncertainty, as delays in raising the limit can disrupt government operations and shake investor confidence.

“Trump has a choice. I believe he can either have a crisis happen today or in the near future, three to six months… and blame it on Biden and Harris,” Hayes argued.

According to Hayes, Trump’s economic strategy relies on forcing the Federal Reserve’s hand into cutting rates and injecting liquidity into the market.