Oil prices took a sharp turn today as traders weighed President Trump’s latest “maximum pressure” push against Iran. Brent crude rose to $76.34 per barrel (+0.50%), while WTI’s loss from early in the day shrunk to just a 0.31% dropoff at $72.93 per barrel.
While a quick glance at today’s oil prices could suggest traders aren’t convinced just yet that the Iran situation could have a profound effect, oil prices are indeed on the rise from their earlier downward trend —a rather quick turn, in fact.
Trump’s plan? Squeeze Iran’s oil exports down to zero—a bold move considering Iran still ships as much as 1.3 million barrels per day , mostly to China. The White House’s playbook includes fresh sanctions, tighter enforcement, and rolling back existing waivers. Translation: If the administration makes good on these threats, global supply could tighten overnight.
The last time Trump went all-in on Iranian sanctions, oil prices spiked north of $80. The market remembers. This time, with Middle East tensions already simmering and OPEC+ struggling to maintain discipline, the upside risk is real.
Of course, oil traders are a cynical bunch. They’ve seen this movie before. Crude flows tend to find a way—whether through shady ship-to-ship transfers or creative bookkeeping in Beijing. But if Washington actually gets aggressive with enforcement (hello, secondary sanctions), even China’s appetite for cheap Iranian crude might take a hit. That’s when Brent could break out.
For now, the market is playing it cool. But don’t be surprised if crude traders wake up tomorrow and suddenly decide that cutting off a key OPEC producer is, in fact, a big deal.
Crude prices were trading down prior to the announcement after China responded to US tariffs on China. WTI was down nearly 3% earlier in the day, with Brent down almost 2%.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
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