(Bloomberg) -- The US payrolls figures due later on Friday need to be just right — not too hot, and not too cold — for US stocks to keep rising, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Market Intelligence.

Anything below 150,000 new jobs will send stocks lower, according to the trading desk led by Andrew Tyler, while a blowout print of over 230,000 would also weigh on stocks as it would increase bets that the Federal Reserve would have to hike rates.

On the low end, “the risk here is that the labor market is cooling faster than anticipated and that will take spending with it,” they said. They predict a report as low as 110,000 would send the S&P 500 down by as much as 1.5% as it suggests concerns surrounding global trade is filtering into the US economy more quickly than anticipated.

Economists are predicting the payrolls report to show 175,000 new roles. JPMorgan economists expect 150,000 jobs to be added in January, which is below the average consensus, and a step down from the 256,000 jobs added the previous month.

The S&P 500 has climbed 3.4% so far this year, underperforming a 4.9% gain for the MSCI All-Country World Index excluding the US. After a strong rally for over two years, US equities are lagging at the start of 2025 amid concerns about the valuation of Big Tech companies and uncertainty from Donald Trump’s trade policies.

Tyler’s team remains “tactically bullish” on US equities and recommends to buy dips to take a longer-term view. “We think the hiring will continue to accelerate, eventually taking the unemployment rate below 4% with an analogous positive impact on spending, pushing real GDP growth above 3% with a subsequent boost to earnings.”