(Bloomberg) -- Brazil analysts revised up 12-month inflation expectations to further above the central bank’s goal, even after policymakers increased the benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point last month and pledged another hike of the same magnitude in March.
Consumer prices are forecast to rise 5.87% in the 12 months, compared with 5.74% in the previous report, according to a weekly survey of economists published on Monday. It was the 18th straight week of upward revisions for the 12-month estimate, which became more widely observed since the central bank adopted a continuous inflation target of 3%. Analysts also lifted their estimates for 2025 inflation to 5.58% and next year’s to 4.30%.
Unanchored inflation expectations are one of the main challenges Governor Gabriel Galipolo will face at the beginning of his four-year mandate that started in January. The bank’s guidance to aggressively boost borrowing costs has done little to rein in economist forecasts that prices will keep rising too fast as long as President Luiz Inacio da Silva doesn’t commit to a credible austerity plan. High government spending continues to fuel consumer demand in Latin America’s largest economy, and unemployment remains low.
Donald Trump’s plans to impose tariffs on imports from several trading partners, including Brazil, may further complicate the outlook for Latin America’s largest economy, weighing on the country’s external accounts.
Brazil’s soaring food prices are also raising concerns among Lula’s cabinet members, who fear a dip in the president’s popularity. The leftist leader has ruled out subsidies to tame inflation to avoid worsening a fiscal outlook that already worry investors.
As inflation estimates steadily rise, most analysts see the central bank elevating borrowing costs to 15.25% by June. It is then expected to lower rates to 15% by December, 12.5% by end-2026 and 10.5% by end-2027.