(Bloomberg) -- Petrobras Chief Executive Officer Magda Chambriard said the Brazilian oil giant can withstand global prices sliding a little lower under Donald Trump, in part by leaning on its customers in China and India.
The US president’s call for American producers to “drill, baby, drill” and tariff plans that could potentially slow the global economy have already helped bring down global oil prices about 6% since his inauguration, to roughly $75 a barrel. And they could fall further.
But Chambriard said that should not impact Petrobras, as the company has established markets in China and India, with a strategic plan that is “resilient” to oil below current levels.
“Our five-year strategic plan is completely resilient to $65,” Chambriard, who is participating in the India Energy Week conference, said in an interview to Bloomberg TV. “I don’t believe prices can go much lower than this, even because the US has to sustain the unconventional production,” she added, referring to US shale fields.
Trump’s trade policy risks widening the rift between the US and the so-called Global South led by Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, or BRICS. Since his previous term in the White House, the group has challenged US priorities such as the dominance of the dollar, and has sought to strengthen trade ties to reduce its dependency on the West.
“We export to the two biggest countries in terms of population in the whole world,” Chambriard said of China and India. “So, I think although we know there can be changes in the United States, we do not think this will affect Petrobras.”
See: What to Know About BRICS and Its Growing Clout: QuickTake
Crude will likely trade between $70 and $75 a barrel under the new US administration, she said, when asked about Trump’s push to boost production and for lower global prices.
Petroleo Brasileiro SA, as the Brazilian state-controlled company is formally called, assumed that the global Brent crude benchmark would average $83 a barrel this year in its strategic plan released in November.
Chambriard is also not concerned that Chinese demand will falter, despite the country’s economic slowdown, and said it’s too early to determine if Trump’s policies will really change the supply dynamics for fossil fuels.
Brazil is ramping up production, aiming to increase output in the next five years by 400,000 barrels a day, which could be sold to partners in other major emerging economies in the so-called BRICS group of nations, she said.
Petrobras is looking for new exploration frontiers as some of its major fields have peaked and started to fade. Chambriard said the company will consider opportunities in India “very seriously”, as the country has just announced plans to offer 25 exploration blocks in deep and ultra-deep waters.
The oil producer’s biggest bet to expand production after 2030 in Brazil is a new key offshore frontier known as the Equatorial Margin. The company is seeking a license to drill its first well in the Foz do Amazonas basin, within that region, which has a similar geology as nearby Guyana, where Exxon Mobil Corp. has found billions of barrels.
Chambriard said Petrobras has hopes of getting the license this year after meeting all demands made by environment protection agency Ibama. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Wednesday he wants oil to be explored on the Equatorial Margin and Petrobras should get the green light to explore the region.
“We are very well prepared and what we have there in the Amazon delta to contain any kind of leak is so huge that no one in the world has put that amount of equipments in a site,” the CEO said.
--With assistance from Peter Millard, Samuel Gould and Naman Tandon.
(Updates with comments on China and India in sixth paragraph.)
