Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insight, believes that Bitcoin is building momentum for a breakout despite market uncertainty fueled by tariffs and macroeconomic conditions.
Speaking on Deribit's Crypto Options Unplugged podcast, Lakha noted that traders are betting on higher Bitcoin prices, with options flows signaling optimism for a move to $110,000 to $115,000.
"Vol got crushed, right? People dumping calls, doing all kinds of stuff, but literally in the last day or two, because vol is battered, people are now coming in and buying calls in March in that $110-$115K, kind of area," Lakha said. "It’s sniffing out some value on the upside."
In the past 24 hours, approximately 121,791 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations amounting to $245.01 million, according to CoinGlass.
The largest single liquidation order occurred on OKX's ETH-USDT swap, valued at $3.03 million. Long positions accounted for $175 million of the liquidations.
Tariffs losing market impact
Despite initial concerns that Trump’s tariffs would cause a prolonged selloff, David Brickell, Head of International Distribution at FRNT, noted that markets have quickly adapted to the headlines.
"Tariff headlines still dominating everything, and they're going to for a while, I guess, right? Yeah. But I think the interesting thing is they're kind of losing their impact," Brickell explained. "A week ago, when he announced tariffs in Canada and Mexico, markets opened Monday and dumped. But this weekend, we had 25% tariffs on aluminum, and that barely had any impact."
Instead, he pointed out that macro conditions remain supportive for risk assets like Bitcoin, citing the new U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant’s economic strategy, which aims to lower yields and weaken the dollar.
"Ultimately, what did Trump and Besant explicitly want? They want a weaker dollar, they want lower yields, they want lower oil, they want higher stocks, higher Bitcoin," Brickell said.
Bitcoin to follow gold’s rally?
While Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum above $100,000, gold has surged in recent weeks. Brickell believes this disconnect won’t last.
"Generally, when we see gold doing that, we'd expect Bitcoin to be doing at least that, and it kind of isn't," Lakha pointed out. "There's a bit of a decoupling between Bitcoin and gold right now. What's that about?"
Brickell explained that gold still serves as the primary safe-haven asset for governments and central banks, but Bitcoin’s time will come.
"Until Bitcoin becomes a reserve currency for everyone, gold is like the go-to asset that they'll want to buy," he said. "But I do think we'll see that recoupling, and that’s why I can’t look at gold flying higher and not be bullish on Bitcoin."
Ethereum’s recovery
Ethereum (ETH), which has underperformed Bitcoin in recent months, may see a short-term rally, Lakha suggested. The ETH/BTC ratio is starting to show strength, and an upcoming upgrade in March could further boost sentiment.
"We still think ETH is value on a long-term basis, and could re-rate higher massively at some point," Lakha stated.
He explained that traders are positioning for an ETH rebound, with volatility and options flows suggesting renewed demand.
"ETH’s got so battered, we've had that big liquidation, and now it's actually digesting it quite well. It’s starting to show a little bit of strength relative to Bitcoin," he said.
Market correction or setup for a new rally?
Despite concerns from some traders that Bitcoin could drop to $70,000, Lakha remains firmly bullish, citing strong institutional demand.
"We had, what, the biggest liquidation event in crypto history the other week, and here we are, back around 96-97K," Lakha pointed out. "There’s this real institutional demand that is still coming into this market. The macrocycle and demand dynamics still support another move higher."
He noted that previous crypto bull runs have seen similar shakeouts before resuming an upward trajectory.
"Timing these things is really difficult, but I do feel a break to the upside is imminent," he concluded.
