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Ameresco’s stock price has taken a beating over the past six months, shedding 32.9% of its value and falling to $19.62 per share. This was partly driven by its softer quarterly results and may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.
Is there a buying opportunity in Ameresco, or does it present a risk to your portfolio? Get the full breakdown from our expert analysts, it’s free .
Despite the more favorable entry price, we're swiping left on Ameresco for now. Here are three reasons why there are better opportunities than AMRC and a stock we'd rather own.
Why Is Ameresco Not Exciting?
Having played a role in upgrading the energy solutions of Alcatraz Island, Ameresco (NYSE:AMRC) provides energy and renewable energy solutions for various sectors.
1. Revenue Tumbling Downwards
Long-term growth is the most important, but within industrials, a stretched historical view may miss new industry trends or demand cycles. Ameresco’s recent history marks a sharp pivot from its five-year trend as its revenue has shown annualized declines of 6.2% over the last two years.
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2. Cash Burn Ignites Concerns
Free cash flow isn't a prominently featured metric in company financials and earnings releases, but we think it's telling because it accounts for all operating and capital expenses, making it tough to manipulate. Cash is king.
Ameresco’s demanding reinvestments have drained its resources over the last five years, putting it in a pinch and limiting its ability to return capital to investors. Its free cash flow margin averaged negative 32.7%, meaning it lit $32.74 of cash on fire for every $100 in revenue.
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3. Short Cash Runway Exposes Shareholders to Potential Dilution
As long-term investors, the risk we care about most is the permanent loss of capital, which can happen when a company goes bankrupt or raises money from a disadvantaged position. This is separate from short-term stock price volatility, something we are much less bothered by.
Ameresco burned through $369.2 million of cash over the last year, and its $1.73 billion of debt exceeds the $113.5 million of cash on its balance sheet. This is a deal breaker for us because indebted loss-making companies spell trouble.
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Unless the Ameresco’s fundamentals change quickly, it might find itself in a position where it must raise capital from investors to continue operating. Whether that would be favorable is unclear because dilution is a headwind for shareholder returns.
We remain cautious of Ameresco until it generates consistent free cash flow or any of its announced financing plans materialize on its balance sheet.
Final Judgment
Ameresco isn’t a terrible business, but it isn’t one of our picks. Following the recent decline, the stock trades at 10.4× forward price-to-earnings (or $19.62 per share). While this valuation is reasonable, we don’t really see a big opportunity at the moment. We're pretty confident there are more exciting stocks to buy at the moment. Let us point you toward one of our top digital advertising picks .
Stocks We Like More Than Ameresco
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