Cathie Wood and her firm ARK Invest have a propensity for high-flying tech and artificial intelligence stocks . That's why it's no surprise to see Wood and ARK embracing cryptocurrencies and the blockchain networks they run on. In fact, few have been more optimistic about cryptocurrencies than Wood, except for perhaps Michael Saylor.
Wood has been particularly bullish on the world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) , in part because she views it as a form of digital gold and therefore an inflation hedge. Wood has always had a high price target for Bitcoin but now sees a higher likelihood of her thesis playing out.
$1.5 million by 2030
Wood and ARK have previously issued a bear, base, and bull case for Bitcoin in 2030. The bear case is $300,000, which represents a compound annual growth (CAGR) rate of 21%. The base case is $710,000, representing a CAGR of 40%, and the bull case of $1.5 million represents a CAGR of 58% and 1,453% upside from Bitcoin's current levels (as of Feb. 14).
In ARK's Big Ideas 2025 report and in a YouTube video, Wood said she now sees a higher likelihood of the bull case playing out.
"Many institutional investors are now looking at Bitcoin and thinking they need to add it to their asset allocation because its return and risk profile looks so much different than all the other assets in their portfolios," Wood said on the YouTube video. While ARK lays out its different scenarios, the ultimate price of Bitcoin depends largely on institutional adoption and the digital gold thesis playing out.
As you can see above, Bitcoin being viewed as an inflation hedge and further institutional adoption will be the primary drivers of Bitcoin going forward, according to Wood and the ARK team. Interestingly, the $1.5 million bull case also includes Bitcoin being increasingly viewed as a safe haven for emerging markets. President Trump's deregulatory approach has certainly made the outlook for Bitcoin increasingly bullish because it makes further institutional adoption much more possible.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently removed its Staff Accounting Bulletin (SAB) 121. This provision required financial institutions to account for cryptocurrencies they were safeguarding in custodian as assets and liabilities on their balance sheet, which deviated away from how assets held in custodian are normally accounted for. This also effectively hurt bank capital and liquidity ratios, making financial institutions more unlikely to offer these services.
Additionally, the Trump administration will allow and encourage more brokerages to list a wider range of tokens and more asset managers to offer spot crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Many think Litecoin , XRP , Solana , and Dogecoin ETFs all have a good chance of getting approved.
A few months ago, BlackRock , the largest asset manager in the world, issued a report suggesting that Bitcoin deserves a modest 1% to 2% allocation in your balanced retirement portfolio. The authors of the report cited similar reasons for owning it as Wood: The decentralized nature of the token makes it a "unique diversifier" because it has less exposure to geopolitical risks and inflation.
Be wary of price targets
I will always caution investors against reading too much into price targets, especially for volatile assets like Bitcoin. Bitcoin is only about 15 years old, so there is still a lot to learn about the digital asset, and cryptocurrencies are more difficult to price because they don't generate cash flow and earnings.
Bitcoin's finite supply positions it as an inflation hedge, and growing market consensus supports its use for this purpose.
I also think the new regulatory regime is likely to increase overall exposure to the token because companies can proceed without fear of regulatory restriction. Overall, I am bullish on Bitcoin long term, but trying to peg a price target on an asset like this is not a good idea.
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