If Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, reaches $1 million this year, four key events will have signaled its breakout, according to Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management.
The first, Hougan pointed out, is Donald Trump's appearance at last year’s Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, where he positioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate. In the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, Trump pledged to establish a national stockpile of crypto assets, improve the regulatory environment for the crypto industry, and remove U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chair Gary Gensler, who later resigned when Trump entered office.
However, critics posit that Trump’s staunch support for digital assets could pose challenges for the nascent crypto industry. Concerns include the possibility that large-scale deregulation could increase risks for ordinary investors, potentially exacerbating the volatility already associated with the sector. Additionally, Trump’s involvement in the crypto space — including his surprise launch of a memecoin — raises questions about potential conflicts of interest and could draw increased regulatory scrutiny to an industry already grappling with concerns over illicit activity .
The second factor that could signal Bitcoin’s path to $1 million, according to Hougan, is the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, giving the greenlight to investors to commit up to 2% of their investments to Bitcoin. "We think that’s a reasonable range for a Bitcoin exposure. Why not more? Going beyond that would sharply increase Bitcoin’s share of the overall portfolio risk,” the company said . BlackRock’s backing paves the way for both institutional investors and risk-conscious traders to enter the market.
The third and fourth factors Hougan highlighted are billionaire Ray Dalio — founder of Bridgewater Associates, the world’s largest hedge fund by assets — expressing support for Bitcoin, and the growth of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which he calls the “most successful ETF launches of all time.” Collectively, the top Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. manage $117 billion in assets, according to CoinGlass.
Bitcoin is currently trading at a price of $95,546.
