The freight market is going through a shake-up, and if you’re a small carrier, you are feeling it. Rates aren’t what they were even a month ago, and the numbers don’t lie — spot and contract rates are trending downward, rejection rates are staying low, and overall freight volume is slipping. Freight demand overall is down 6.5% month over month , and fuel costs have risen 6 cents per gallon over the same period. That means not only are there fewer loads available , but the cost to run those loads is creeping up. With fewer shipments moving and too many trucks chasing the same freight, brokers and shippers have the upper hand, which keeps rates low and makes it harder for small carriers to turn a profit.
If you’ve been struggling to find loads that make sense for your business, you’re not alone. Spot rates are already down 1% from last week and 2.7% from last month , while contract rates have dipped 1.6% over the past 30 days. And with fuel, insurance and maintenance costs continuing to eat away at margins, it’s clear that this market is testing owner-operators and small fleets in a big way. This is one of those moments in trucking where survival depends on making smart moves. Running cheap freight just to keep the wheels turning isn’t the answer, but sitting idle isn’t either. Now’s the time to watch the market closely, cut unnecessary expenses and focus on lanes that actually turn a profit – because in a market like this, the carriers that adapt and make every mile count will be the ones still standing when the tide turns. There are some markets like Boston; Bristol, New Hampshire; and Austin, Texas, that are showing up as hot markets, but there are many more cold markets. Not to mention, the hot markets are small and only account for roughly 1.5% of the total freight market.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Right now, overall the market is soft, meaning there’s more capacity (trucks available) than freight to move. That imbalance is driving rates down across the board. Here’s what the data is telling us:
Why This Matters
If you’re an owner-operator, this trend is concerning because you are wondering when things are going to turn the corner. Low rejection rates mean brokers and shippers have more control over pricing: They simply have more carriers to choose from and with low rejection rates, that means carriers are taking whatever comes their way. When demand for trucks is low, rates follow suit, and right now, both contract and spot rates are showing signs of decline.
What’s Next?
Expect the next few weeks to remain tough on rates, unless there’s a shake-up in capacity or demand. If you’re running spot market loads, be extra selective on lanes — don’t fall into the trap of hauling cheap freight just to stay moving. Shorten your lengths of hauls, and you may have to run some areas that aren’t on your list of favorites. There is still good freight out there, just limited at the moment.
Bottom line: This market is not for the weak. The smartest owner-operators will cut unnecessary expenses, avoid weak-paying lanes and focus on efficiency. Keep your eye on fuel costs, watch your rate per mile, and stay informed — because the ones who adapt will be the ones who survive.
For more market info, tune in to the February State of Freight Webinar today at 2:00 pm ET. Register here.
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