The last time President Donald Trump slapped tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, the finance world mostly hated it . This time, Wall Street is distraught.
The one-month grace period Trump gifted Mexico and Canada is over. On Tuesday, he imposed 25% tariffs on the United States’ North American neighbors, plus an extra 10% tariff on China. Each country has either retaliated or indicated it would. Canada said it would impose 25% tariffs on almost $100 billion of U.S. imports, Mexico said it would respond with its own tariffs on Sunday, and China announced tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods.
Global markets tumbled on the news. The S&P 500 is down 1.78% today, the Dow Jones is down 1.79%, and the Nasdaq is down 1.76%, at the time of writing. The Trump stock market rally is taking a hit and analysts are unusually concerned for the landscape ahead.
In many research notes from the major Wall Street banks seen by Fortune, analysts are largely unanimous: The tariffs are going to be bad for trade, bad for stocks, and bad for economic growth. Their notes to clients are particularly sharp and pithy. Wall Street is, compared to its usual staid standards, highly agitated.
What analysts are saying about Trump’s tariffs
“The trouble with tariffs, to be succinct, is that they raise prices, slow economic growth, cut profits, increase unemployment, worsen inequality, diminish productivity, and increase global tensions. Other than that, they’re fine,” JPMorgan chief global strategist David Kelly said, per Bloomberg.
Separately, JPMorgan analysts led by Maia Crook said in a March 3 note that tariffs on Canada and Mexico upend three decades of free trade. The increase in levies is almost twice as much as throughout the 2018 to 2019 trade war, researchers wrote.
Goldman Sachs analysts led by Jan Hatzius similarly explained in a note that the rise in the tariff rate on Chinese imports is “roughly twice as large as the increase over the entire first Trump administration.” Goldman Sachs analysts said they wouldn’t rule out another pause when it comes to Mexico and Canada, but so far that isn’t looking to be the case.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s Asia team, led by strategist Jonathan Garner, called the tariffs “important and likely stagflationary for the global economy” in a note dated March 4. But the slowdown in U.S. growth because of lower consumer confidence, Garner said, would matter more to investors in Asia. What’s more, Citi researchers said “trade wars are just getting started” in a note dated March 3. Trump’s tariffs on China in particular might force the market to recalibrate, researchers said.
UBS chief economist Paul Donovan on Tuesday said Trump’s taxes on Mexico, Canada, and China “increase recession risks.”
“The trade taxes are direct attacks on U.S. living standards,” Donovan said. “These costs will be quickly visible to U.S. consumers, applying to high-frequency purchases like food and fuel. Complex supply chains like the auto sector will be damaged if every cross-border trade is taxed. Even if short-lived, these measures cause economic damage; consumers become more aware of how tariffs work, and business uncertainty increases.”
He continued: “Second-round effects could do additional damage. U.S. companies may raise prices under cover of tariffs, if they choose profit margin over market share. Profit-led inflation is also possible amongst retailers, as consumers mistakenly think a 25% trade tax justifies a 25% consumer price increase.”
Donovan warned of non-tariff retaliation too. For what it’s worth, reciprocal tariffs haven’t gone into effect yet.
