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As Nvidia's ( NVDA ) stock goes, so goes the broader market.

"The near-term future of this market, for lack of a better term, is dictated by what's going on at Nvidia and really in semiconductors and technology writ large, just by virtue of their size and by virtue of their importance," Evercore technical strategist Rich Ross told me on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid podcast (see video above or listen below).

Ross has been studying market technicals for more than 30 years. In 2024, Institutional Investor ranked Ross No. 1 in his field for the seventh straight year. He was named to Institutional Investor's All-America Research team for the 10th year in a row.

In his view, it's no small surprise that as Nvidia's stock struggled this year, the stock market has followed suit.

The AI trade — led by Nvidia and its surging sales and profit story — has powered the stock market over the past two years. As that trade has broken down this year ( seen mostly through "Magnificent Seven" weakness ), given concerns ranging from a trade war to overvaluation, investors have questioned the broad stock market's strength and valuation.

Watch: What Bill Gates thinks about Nvidia

Ross explained, "What's been driving that key AI theme [for markets] for Nvidia and Broadcom ( AVGO ), is that it really has its tentacles in so many different sectors and across power generation, what have you. So there are a lot of stocks that have been touched with the brush of AI and Nvidia."

Shares of the AI chip darling haven't worked this year, much to the surprise of the bulls who have minted money off Nvidia over the past five years. The stock is off by 10% as investors fret over exposure to China in President Trump's trade war and the possible overbuilding of AI infrastructure. The company's cautious first quarter margin outlook did little to ease worries.

The stock is below its key 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving average, a major sign of lost momentum among traders.

The S&P 500 ( ^GSPC ) — which includes a more than 6% weighting to Nvidia — is down by 5% this year.

That makes Nvidia's annual "Woodstock of AI" a must-watch for the bulls.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has it within his power to get the year back on track for his stock and the market overall today at the company's GTC event and in a financial analyst meeting on Wednesday. The event is being held in San Jose, Calif.

Read more: How does Nvidia make money?

Huang will have to deliver on several fronts at the event, experts say.

First, he must provide intricate details on how much more powerful Nvidia's next-generation chip Rubin is than the current gold standard in Blackwell.

Second, an update on the total AI addressable market opportunity for Nvidia is important, as investors have worried about AI infrastructure overbuilding. This update could be crucial to jump-starting the AI trade.

And third, Huang would be wise to share offsets in the business for its China operations that are likely to be harmed by the Trump administration's trade war.

"Bottom line, the team continues to maintain a 1- 2 step lead ahead of competitors with its silicon/hardware/software platforms, and a strong ecosystem (4M CUDA software developers) and the team is further distancing itself with its aggressive cadence of new product launches and more product segmentation over time," JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur wrote ahead of GTC.

Sur has an Overweight rating (Buy equivalent) on Nvidia shares and a $170 price target. The price target estimates 41% upside for Nvidia's stock from current levels. It's also relatively in line with the average sell-side analyst price target on Nvidia, according to Yahoo Finance data .

Three times each week, I field insight-filled conversations and chats with the biggest names in business and markets on Opening Bid . You can find more episodes on our video hub or watch on your preferred streaming service .

Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi , Instagram , and LinkedIn