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Dive Brief:

Dive Insight:

In January, Xeneta forecasted a 4% to 6% year-over-year increase in 2025 global air cargo demand, following a year of double-digit demand growth. Growing trade uncertainty has now clouded that outlook.

Earlier this month, the Trump administration upped its tariffs on China by 10%, building on the initial 10% increase it implemented Feb. 4. Trump has also vowed to introduce universal reciprocal tariffs on April 2, creating further uncertainty.

The shifting tariff landscape is creating headwinds for several industries , prompting businesses to adjust supply chains to offset the impact .

“From the conversations we are hearing, some shippers are clearly looking for ways to minimise the impact of US tariffs, while others will be anticipating lower airfreight rates if e-commerce volumes show a sustained dip,” said Xeneta Chief Airfreight Officer Niall van de Wouw in the report.

February by the numbers

4%

YoY percentage increase in global air cargo volume.

$2.53

The average spot rate per kilogram, up 10% YoY

59%

The global dynamic load factor, which measures the volume and weight of cargo flown, as well as available capacity. February’s reading was unchanged YoY .

The state of e-commerce

E-commerce volumes have been a primary driver of air cargo activity over the past few years. But the regular seasonal e-commerce demand slowdown at the start of the year, paired with the U.S.’ brief pause of the de minimis exemption on China-based shipments, may indicate “regulatory/political conversations are starting to affect the air cargo market,” van de Wouw said.

“With general cargo demand in the doldrums in recent years, the surge in e-commerce has been the saviour of the air cargo market performance. If this now takes a significant hit, if that happens, it will have a profound effect on airfreight rates around the world,” he said.

In February alone, spot rates from Shanghai to the U.S. dropped 29% month over month to $3.23 per kilogram, Xeneta reported. For comparison, February rates from Shanghai to Europe only experienced a 2% month-over-month decline.

According to van de Wouw, when the outbound e-commerce surge started a few years ago, it “clogged” the market in Hong Kong and southern China. In turn, the e-commerce market shifted toward Shanghai — despite it being a “less desirable” destination to ship from due to higher costs.

“If a fall in e-commerce volumes means there’s currently more available capacity to do business out of Hong Kong and southern China again, we would expect Shanghai to be the first market to feel this impact, and that’s what we saw in February,” the chief airfreight officer said. “This may be short-term, but the uncertainty around e-commerce is impacting the market.”

Xeneta further reported the Trump administration’s proposal to charge additional port call fees on China-built ships may temporarily drive up ocean container freight rates and prompt a modal shift from sea to air.

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