Market Likely to Endure Deeper Selloffs Before Support From Trump, Fed

  • Home
  • Information
  • Mar 19, 2025

(Bloomberg) -- While there is little sign yet of a bear market despite a gradual shift higher in volatility, investors looking for support from Donald Trump or the Federal Reserve may have to endure deeper selloffs.

The “Fed put” may be removed as the US central bank is likely to keep rates higher for longer in the context of sticky inflation, Karim Chedid, Head of EMEA Investment Strategy at BlackRock, said Tuesday in London during a panel at the Bloomberg Intelligence Volatility Forum. Also, Trump 2.0 has seen the US president care less about the stock market than he did the first time around.

The Trump administration focus is on the 10-year Treasury yield, and “if we got somewhere around 5.5% I think there’d be concerns,” said Lindsay Rosner, head of multi-sector investing at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. “Where central banks step in, where the US administration cares, I think is a much further away point that people would have thought two months ago.”

With market backstops providing less of a cushion, hedging has been in focus this year. Panelists noted the lack of a spike in the Cboe Volatility Index as markets sold off, unlike in August and December last year. In fact, S&P 500 put options have provided a better hedge for portfolios than VIX call options since stocks fell from their highs in mid-February.

However, despite volatility being a less effective hedge than more traditional put options on the S&P 500 and other indexes, the current environment is favorable for volatility strategies in general, said Pierre de Saab, former partner at Dominice.

While the market shifted to a defensive posture as equities declined, in terms of higher skew and term structure, that’s come back off as traders monetized positions, according to Tanvir Sandhu, chief global derivatives strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

“There’s no sign if you look at market metrics that we’re going into a bear market or a recession,” said Sandhu. “We look at credit spreads, high yield spreads” as relatively contained, he said.