Kenya Failed Final IMF Program Review May Delay World Bank, UAE Funds, S&P Says

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  • Mar 24, 2025

(Bloomberg) -- Kenya’s failure to meet key targets in its final review under an International Monetary Fund program that led it to forfeit a disbursement of about $850 million may lead to delays in it obtaining other external financing, S&P Global Ratings said.

“Since IMF funding often serves as a catalyst for other official and private flows, we expect there might be delays to World Bank — about $800 million — and United Arab Emirates — $1.5 billion — funding in first-half 2025,” the ratings agency said Monday.

Kenya failed to reach key benchmarks under the $3.6 billion IMF funding program signed in 2021 including slashing its fiscal deficit and increasing revenue-raising measures. Its attempts to introduce new taxes last year were abandoned after deadly protests.

S&P also said Kenya’s request for a new IMF funding program could be finalized ahead of the next fiscal year starting July, contingent upon the nature of reforms passed under the 2025 Finance Bill. In the meantime, it could “plug immediate concessional financing shortfalls with domestic funding or other commercial facilities, albeit at a much higher cost,” it said.

The agency also warned that the missed IMF disbursements may complicate the government’s efforts to lower its debt-servicing costs.

Last month, Kenya bought back some of its eurobonds and issued longer dated securities, and said it will use the balance of about $950 million to retire expensive syndicated loans owed to the Trade and Development Bank.

It also plans to lower the portion of foreign loans to about 18% of the total on lower IMF receipts in its next fiscal year. It projects a budget gap of about 4.9% of gross domestic product this year and 4.3% in the next one.