Key Takeaways

If forecasters are correct about how employers are responding to potential economic upheavals, the job market likely slowed in March but didn't collapse.

A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday is likely to show the U.S. economy added 140,000 jobs in March, a slowdown from 151,000 in February, according to a survey of forecasters by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal . The median forecast calls for the unemployment rate to stay at 4.1%, close to where it's hovered for the past six months.

The report is expected to give some insight into how the economy is weathering the strain from President Donald Trump's frequently changing tariff announcements , which roiled financial markets in recent weeks and created uncertainty among business leaders about what trade policy the U.S. will have in the future. Economists have warned the tariffs, which will likely drive up consumer prices, could stoke inflation and hurt the economy—and that the uncertainty will also drag on hiring and other business investments.

High interest rates for loans, the result of the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation , have also discouraged hiring and business expansion in recent years, although the job market has stayed relatively resilient.

Clouding the picture is the turmoil surrounding Trump's efforts to reduce the size of the federal workforce. Since his inauguration, Trump has laid off thousands of federal workers , but various court orders reversed many of the firings .

Although recent consumer surveys show households are bracing for a worsening job market , forecasters say unemployment claims have remained relatively low, suggesting tariffs have not yet led to mass layoffs.

A pickup of 140,000 would be less job creation than the 167,000 average over the past 12 months. The economy has not lost jobs in any month since December 2020 in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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