Key Takeaways

Airline stocks slumped Tuesday after Jefferies analysts lowered their ratings for three of the four major U.S. carriers, writing “consumer sentiment continues to disappoint.”

The broker dropped American Airlines ( AAL ) and Delta Air Lines ( DAL ) to “hold” from “buy,” and Southwest ( LUV ) down to “underperform,” sending shares of all three companies between 3% and around 5% lower in early trading Tuesday.

The downgrades come after Delta, Southwest, and American each lowered their projections for the first quarter of the year, citing an uncertain macroeconomic environment , along with extreme weather . Jefferies expects the airlines to cut their full-year projections as well, with uncertainty “swelling” around the impact of tariffs expected to take effect this week.

United Airlines ( UAL ) is the lone U.S. carrier with a "buy" rating from Jeffieres, given its "[opportunity] beyond 2025” and a strategy that “remains at the forefront of the industry.” Shares of United slid more than 4% on Tuesday.

However, United isn’t immune from macro trends. In 2024, all four major airlines reported a higher cost per available seat mile than passenger revenue per available seat mile, meaning they’re effectively losing money transporting passengers. The companies are still profitable, but it's due in part to the growth of lucrative co-branded credit cards, such as United’s relationship with JPMorgan Chase ( JPM ).

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