Computer chip equipment maker ASML reported first-quarter earnings that fell short of analysts’ expectations on Wednesday. However, the Dutch tech giant maintained its outlook for 2025, forecasting annual sales between €30 billion and €35bn.
CEO Christophe Fouquet was optimistic about growth in 2025 and 2026 while flagging uncertainties surrounding the ongoing global trade war.
He stated: “The recent tariff announcements have increased uncertainty in the macro environment and the situation will remain dynamic for a while.”
He also noted that artificial intelligence remains a key growth driver but warned of potential downside risks in the near term: “It has created a shift in the market dynamics that benefits some customers more than others, contributing to both upside potential and downside risks as reflected in our 2025 revenue range.”
The tone marked a shift from Fouquet’s more confident outlook last year, when he projected annual sales growth of 8% to 14% over the next five years. ASML had previously forecast revenue of €44bn to €60bn by 2030, with gross margins between 56% and 60%.
ASML maintains a near-monopoly position in the semiconductor industry, producing extreme ultraviolet lithography systems (EUVs) — the world’s most advanced machines for manufacturing cutting-edge chips. While China remained its largest market in the first quarter, accounting for 29% of total revenue, the company previously forecasted that figure to fall to 20% by 2025. China made up 27% of ASML’s net system sales in the first three months of the year.
Trump trade tariffs
Nevertheless, the worsening trade tensions between the US and China — particularly the prospect of higher US tariffs on semiconductors — are weighing heavily on its outlook. In a video presentation, ASML outlined several potential consequences of new US tariffs, including increased freight costs due to retaliatory measures from other countries.
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ASML shares have been under pressure since mid-February, falling by 18% after former US President Donald Trump signalled new tariffs on semiconductors. Its earnings announcement came just one day after the US Department of Commerce said it had launched an investigation into semiconductor imports. Hours earlier, Nvidia also warned of a potential hit from the new US trade restrictions with China. Both developments may overshadow ASML’s results by influencing its share price.
Net bookings disappoint
ASML reported net bookings of €3.94bn for the first quarter — well below the €4.89bn expected by analysts. The figure also marked a sharp 44% drop from the previous quarter.
Total net sales reached €7.7bn in the first three months of the year, slightly below the forecast €7.8bn and a steep decline from €9.3bn total seen in the final quarter of 2024. Net income also fell to €2.4bn from €2.7bn in the previous quarter. On a positive note, the company’s gross margin improved to 54.0% from 51.7% previously.
For the current quarter, ASML expects net sales between €7.2bn and €7.7bn, with a gross margin in the range of 50% to 53%.
The company also announced plans to declare a total dividend of €6.40 per ordinary share for the year 2024, up 4.9% from the previous year. In the first quarter, ASML repurchased €2.7bn worth of shares under its current three-year buyback programme.
