Where's the bottom for bitcoin (BTC)?

While acknowledging it's possible that level has already been hit, on-chain analyst James Check suggested a true bottom may not be in place until after bitcoin suffers a true capitulation event.

That would likely require a decline to the $65,000 area, said Check, calling it the "true market mean," i.e., the average cost basis for active investors.

At that point according to Check, who spoke on the TFTC podcast , the average investor may begin to feel the pressure of unrealized losses. Even long-term holders, including those who have held bitcoin for five years, could find themselves underwater. Interestingly, this price level aligns closely with Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which has a similar cost basis of around $67,500.

Where does capitulation take the market?

While Check expects sizable declines from the $65,000 area, he sees strong support in the $49,000-$50,000 range, those prices representing the launch of the ETFs in 2024 as well as a $1 trillion market cap for bitcoin. A drop to as low as $40,000 seems unlikely, he said, barring a global recession.

Check also took note of the extended period of "chopsolidation" in 2024 — where bitcoin traded for months in a wide range between $50K and $70K — as establishing a strong foundation of support.