
If consumers are expecting higher prices in the future, they might spend more today . But not if they’re also worried about losing their jobs.
There are conflicting signals coming from the country’s largest credit-card lenders. Some are showing more spending, others less. What is clear is that different groups of consumers are responding in their own ways.
Several lenders have reported an uptick in spending in the first quarter versus a year earlier, with some attributing that partly to a “pull-forward” of future purchases. In other words, people are defensively buying stuff today that could become more expensive under President Trump’s tariff policies.
But lenders were also reporting a mix of trends within their customer base. Synchrony Financial told analysts that lower-income consumers started “tapering” their spending a year ago, while the higher-income consumer is still increasing their spending.
March data from the Bank of America Institute, which analyzes anonymized customer data, showed spending growth was slower for lower-income households than middle- and higher-income ones.
This is contrary to what you might expect. Although lower-income households may have less flexibility in their budgets, that doesn’t seem to stop them from buying ahead when they anticipate higher future prices. In fact, research from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas published in 2021, during the bout of inflation following the pandemic, found a stronger effect for these consumers.
With higher inflation expectations, lower-income households had stronger increases in their spending on durable goods—that is, physical stuff that lasts long enough to make it worth purchasing for future needs, the study found. Notably, these buyers may be counting on future inflation reducing the burden of their debts.
However, the Dallas Fed’s researchers also found that if consumers perceive economic risk, like job losses, they might spend less regardless of their expectations for prices. Any “positive effect that inflation expectations may exert on consumption could be attenuated if accompanied by anticipated higher unemployment,” they wrote.
That isn’t necessarily a problem for lenders.
“Moderation in spending patterns is actually a positive in terms of credit. We actually are encouraged by that pullback because consumers are not overextending. They’re being disciplined,” Synchrony Chief Executive Brian Doubles told analysts.
In addition to slowing spending, Bank of America Institute’s data also showed that after-tax wages and salaries had started growing more slowly among lower-income households—a contrast to the trend for the prior two years.
Even consumers who are spending more, though, are hardly partying. Researchers at the Institute wrote recently that card data suggests that “consumers are easing up on ‘nice to have’ spending by pulling back across restaurant, travel/tourism and leisure spending in February and March.”
By contrast, there was a sharp pickup in durables spending in March after two months of declines. It wasn’t clear if that was driven by large, high-cost purchases (like, say, buying an imported television or appliance). But there was a surge in auto-loan applications at the end of March.
One place where declining travel demand is clearly visible is at airlines, where executives have dialed back their outlooks for the year. Capital One Chief Executive Richard Fairbank, speaking to analysts, noted easing in recent weeks in travel-and-entertainment spending, or T&E, particularly airfare.
At American Express, overall T&E billed business grew 6% in the first quarter year-over-year after adjusting for currency fluctuations, slower than the 7% growth in goods-and-services spending. The company noted that trip bookings remain strong. But airline billings growth slowed from the fourth quarter.
Economic anxiety presents differently in different groups. What is clear is that many are now feeling it.
Write to Telis Demos at Telis.Demos@wsj.com