(Bloomberg) -- Bitcoin and other major digital tokens are set to dance to the tune of the stock market’s reaction to a key US jobs report due later Friday, if a rising short-term correlation between crypto and equities is any guide.
A 30-day correlation coefficient for a gauge of the largest 100 digital assets and MSCI’s index of world shares is near 0.60, one of the highest levels in the past two years, data compiled by Bloomberg show. A reading of 1 indicates assets are moving in lockstep, while minus 1 signals an inverse tie.
Investors are on tenterhooks for the employment data amid uncertainty over whether a slowdown is brewing in the world’s top economy, and the likely pace of ensuing interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. A surprisingly weak jobs report last month stoked global market volatility, including a crypto slump.
“Bitcoin has been responding to macro events in a highly correlated manner to equities,” said Benjamin Celermajer, co-chief investment officer at Magnet Capital. Sentiment has been “pretty poor” the last two weeks and $55,000 is a key Bitcoin support level to watch, he said.
Below Record High
Bitcoin edged up about 1% to $56,653 as of 12:30 p.m. Friday in Singapore, trading about $17,000 below the all-time high set in March. Smaller tokens such as Ether and Solana also inched higher. US equity futures wavered, signaling caution ahead of the payrolls data for August.
Inflows into US spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds spurred the record-breaking rally in the largest digital asset earlier in the year. But the bull run then fizzled and the ETFs have suffered a spell of outflows in recent days.
“The devil will be in the detail for the jobs report tonight,” said Cici Lu McCalman, founder of blockchain adviser Venn Link Partners. One risk is that the data turn out to be solid enough to temper bets on Fed rate cuts, she said.
Looser monetary policy is often viewed as favorable for speculative assets like crypto. Forecasters anticipate the jobs figures will show a bounce in hiring and a tick lower in the unemployment rate, marking a stabilization after the July data sparked a growth scare.
--With assistance from Sidhartha Shukla.
