Political bettors are pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into their expected outcomes on crypto-powered prediction markets: for example, who Vice President Kamala Harris will pick as her running mate.
MetaDAO takes the idea further: the Solana-based governance experiment just raised millions of dollars from venture backers who think prediction markets should decide outcomes.
VC giant Paradigm recently led a $2.2 million funding round in MetaDAO, a months-old project building governance structures that rely on market forces rather than votes. This construct is called a futarchy. Its proponents believe market participants are driven to make better choices than, say, politicians.
The round comes as the 2024 elections are putting a spotlight on crypto's blisteringly popular prediction markets. According to data site Dune , market leader Polymarket currently boasts nearly $90 million in open interest, a record for contracts that ask bettors to predict the outcomes of world events, like political shakeups.
The hubbub around prediction markets gave MetaDAO an edge in fundraising, Proph3t, MetaDAO's pseudonymous founder, told CoinDesk in an interview. He said his pitch to investors highlighted the similarities: “'If we see Polymarket as a machine then it made sense to me that we’d want to use a truth machine to make decisions.'"
Paradigm was founded by Fred Ehrsham, the co-founder of the Coinbase crypto exchange. The firm has been a vocal supporter of prediction markets, for example as a way for businesses to hedge political risks .
Paradigm will own 3,035 tokens, making it META's single largest holder at 14.6% of the total supply, according to Proph3t, MetaDAO's pseudonymous founder. Around 30 angel investors bought an additional 965 META tokens for a total raise of $2,229,950.
Futarchy in action
MetaDAO's rendering of futarchy centers on the value of its token, META. Any proposal for the group to take action gets a "pass" and "fail" market where traders can speculate on META. The outcome of the proposal depends on which of these markets end with a higher token price. A proposal only passes if META is worth more in the "pass" market than the "fail" market.
Last month, MetaDAO's chief "futards" (who go by the handles Nallok and Proph3t) proposed the project sell a couple million dollars-worth of META tokens to pay for engineers, office space and other startup costs. META traders approved: they bid META up to $435 in the "pass" market, while contracts in the "fail" market sat at $386. The proposal passed; the fundraise proceeded.
MetaDAO puts a different spin on governance than the other self-proclaimed "decentralized autonomous organizations" (DAO) in crypto. Most DAOs treat their tokens as votes and the token's holders as voters. In MetaDAO, anyone with money to spare can directly influence an outcome.
The project garnered major interest in the Solana ecosystem at February's mtnDAO hacker house gathering in Salt Lake City. It has since become an active evangelist for futarchy. MetaDAO is working with a handful of other Solana-based projects on implementing their own betting market-based systems.
One of those partners, the trading platform Drift, is using MetaDAO tech to determine which projects get grants of its DRIFT token. Co-founder Cindy Leow told CoinDesk the implementation is "showing really positive signs" and has seen one proposal accepted, and another rejected.
"This tells us the community is thinking very carefully around spend and governance budgeting," she said.
