Treasury Yields Climb Anew With Focus on Inflation Under Trump

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  • Nov 12, 2024

(Bloomberg) -- US Treasuries slumped as investors looked to rekindle a selloff spurred by Donald Trump’s presidential victory last week.

Yields on the 10-year benchmark bond rose as much as 5 basis points to 4.36% as of 8:13 a.m. in London, as short-end bonds led declines. Cash markets were closed on Monday for a US holiday.

Treasuries tumbled in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s election win as investors amped up bets that policies like tax cuts and tariffs will fuel price pressures. That’s reinvigorating a focus on inflation just days after the Federal Reserve delivered a quarter-point interest-rate reduction, with a reading of October inflation data scheduled for Wednesday.

“Better economic data, perhaps a too-dovish Fed, and more policy details from the Trump administration could push Treasury yields higher,” a team of strategists at LPL Financial wrote in a Monday note. “It will take negative economic surprises for yields to fall meaningfully from current levels.”

Over the weekend, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the US economy has remained remarkably strong as the central bank progressed in beating back inflation, but the Fed was still “not all the way home.”

Traders in the swap market expect a combined quarter-point move over the next two meetings and 60% odds of a December cut. However, one standout options trade on Monday targeted two more quarter-point cuts for the December and January policy meetings.

To George Catrambone, head of fixed income at DWS Americas, the bond market likely remains “under the influence of the election results,” even though investors “ought to wait to see what ultimately becomes stated policy.”

On Wall Street, the uncertainty is pushing strategists to hold tight to their neutral recommendations in the wake of the election. Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley strategists are all neutral on bond duration after the election and latest Fed decision.

Trump’s return to the presidency could lead to the re-emergence of “bond vigilantes” if he follows through with big spending plans, economist Nouriel Roubini said. “The market discipline is going to be quite quick,” if Trump pushes to make his 2017 tax cuts permanent, Roubini told Bloomberg Television.

--With assistance from Carter Johnson, Michael Mackenzie and Neha D'silva.

(Updates with latest moves in second paragraph.)