(Bloomberg) -- The record-breaking rally in Bitcoin since Donald Trump’s US presidential election victory is beginning to show signs of slowing in the derivatives market.
The premium paid for CME-listed Bitcoin futures contracts over the spot market price, which is one of the most common instruments used by US-based institutional investors to make bets, has declined, K33 Research said. Open interest, or the total number of all the outstanding contracts, for put options with a strike price of $80,000 has surged in the past 24 hours, according to crypto data tracker Amberdata.
“Markets seems to be cooling down, CME basis have trended lower since yesterday’s close, hovering around 10% throughout the day, down from the 13-16% basis regime since the election,” said Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research. “That might have been a subtle hint of moderating risk profiles.”
Bitcoin traded at around $89,500 in New York, down from an all-time high of $93,462 reached Wednesday. The original cryptocurrency has jumped more than 30% since Trump, now a supporter of Bitcoin, defeated Vice President Kamala Harris last week.
The liquidation of leveraged bullish bets across the crypto market has in part contributed to the retreat from the record high. Liquidations of long positions were twice as high as for bearish bets in the past 24 hours, at $447 million and $207 million respectively, according to data compiled by Coinglass. The liquidations were more evenly split earlier in the rally.
Possible profit taking after the manic run could be another impetus for the current downturn since $90,000 is the price level that has seen one of the largest open interest positions in call options, according to James Davies, CEO at on-chain futures and options trading platform Crypto Valley Exchange.
“Crazy speculative days in the market, big profit taking in the last few hours,” Davies said. “$90k is a massive level in the call options open interest.”
The rally has largely been driven by fresh demand from the spot market as seen in heavy flows into the exchange-traded funds backed by the digital asset and relatively moderate leverage, traders said.
The funding rate, a key measure of leverage, for Bitcoin perpetual futures traded on offshore exchanges, increased after declining earlier this week. Options traders are aiming higher with more interest in the calls, with the strike prices of $110,000 and $120,000, according to data compiled by the largest options exchange Deribit.
“It’s all pure speculative trading right now, expect lots volatility and a lack of clear signals for a while whilst we wait for policy announcements in the US,” Davies said. “As we get closer to the November options expiry, it will be interesting to see if $90k becomes a resistance level, or if we are well past it.”
