• Feb 28, 2025

Inflation, growth may be in conflict but Fed seen restarting cuts in June

New data may point to emerging tension between the U.S. Federal Reserve's dual inflation and employment goals, as price pressures remained sticky in January while consumer spending slowed more than expected. Traders maintained bets the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its June and September meetings this year, but analysts noted the situation seemed to have become more complex and could present policymakers with a difficult decision in the weeks ahead. Hints of slowing growth alongside inflation still stuck above the Fed's 2% target, "presents a dilemma for the Fed...if you add them together, that equals stagflation," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist for Spartan Capital Securities in New York.

  • Feb 28, 2025

US consumer spending declines; annual inflation subsides

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly fell in January while the annual increase in inflation slowed, supporting financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would resume cutting interest rates in June. But the moderation in annual inflation, which partly reflected last year's high readings dropping out of the calculation, is unlikely to be sustained as President Donald Trump's administration ratchets up tariffs on imports, which economists warned would raise prices. "The good news is consumer inflation broke the curse of the January effect," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.